A mere two months prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
