Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
